This Friedman Seminar features Dr. Christian J. Peters, Associate Professor, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, presenting "Carrying Capacity of U.S. Agricultural Land: Ten Diet Scenarios."
ABSTRACT
Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Dr. Peters will present findings from a recent study of the U.S. carrying capacity which estimated the number of people who could be fed from the nation’s agricultural land. The study used a biophysical simulation model to calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The model considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. A 9-fold difference in land requirements, from 0.12 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1, was found among the diet scenarios. Carrying capacity ranged from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.
BIO
Christian J. Peters, Ph.D. is an Associate Professor in the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University. Dr. Peters joined the faculty of the Friedman School in 2010 and teaches primarily in the Agriculture, Food, and Environment program. His research interests lie in the developing field of sustainability science, in the area of food systems. Within this broad, trans-disciplinary field, Dr. Peters currently focuses on three major topics: (1) Sustainability implications of dietary choices, (2) Land requirements of food consumption and carrying capacity of agricultural land resources, and (3) Production potential of local and regional food systems. He is perhaps most well-known for his spatial analysis of potential local foodsheds of New York State, providing a concrete example of a term that has resonated with the local and regional food movements. Dr. Peters received his Master of Science and Ph.D. degrees in Soil and Crop Sciences from Cornell University and received his Bachelor of Science degree in Environmental Sciences from Rutgers University